Closed sales are up only 14 this week, not too much of an uptick which indicates that closings are holding a pretty steady pace. We will continue to watch this trend as the best observations come from trend analysis over longer time periods. But this brings up a great point!
How closely should we be following data and making observations? Today on the front page of MSNBC.com’s Real Estate section you can find 2 headlines, one reading “U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise as Rates Plunge” and a little further down, “Mortgage Demand Drops as Rates Rise”. These articles were written 1 week apart. So which is it? Are applications up or down? Are rates up or down? Both are true. On any given day these rates are rising and falling as are applications. We cannot infer too much from taking this information at any given point in time. We need to step back and look at it’s general trend. Rates have been trending upwards in recent months but are still historically low. Some months see a greater increase in mortgage applications and some see less regardless of interest rates. Families with school age children (who make up a large portion of real estate activity) prefer to find new homes and settle before the start of a new school year. With summer ending and the school year begining we will be entering a cooling period for real estate activity. We can expect that closed sales may begin to drop of slightly irrespective of price and interest rates. Beginning next week we should be able to start seeing this trend on a chart. Charting too little information creates the impression of volatility that is due to too small of a data sample size.
The closed sales data we are tracking supports the conclusion that Orange County is seeing a steady flow of activity. While it may go up or down any given week, the general trend looks to be pretty stable. When reading and watching media reports of economic activity try to avoid this tendency to infer trends from a single event. The media is constantly doing this, watching the numbers TOO closely especially regarding real estate, unemployment filings and stock market information.
| Aliso Viejo | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 13 |
| Anaheim | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 18 |
| Anaheim Hills | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Total Sales | 10 |
| Brea | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 5 |
| Buena Park | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 10 |
| Corona del Mar | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Total Sales | 4 |
| Costa Mesa | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 13 |
| Cypress | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 10 |
| Dana Point | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Total Sales | 5 |
| Fountain Valley | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 8 |
| Garden Grove | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 22 |
| Huntington Beach | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Total Sales | 29 |
| Irvine | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 0 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 14 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Total Sales | 41 |
| La Habra | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 10 |
| Laguna Beach | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | Total Sales | 5 |
| Laguna Niguel | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Total Sales | 15 |
| Lake Forest | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 9 |
| Los Alamitos | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 0 |
| Mission Viejo | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 6 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 24 |
| Newport Beach | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | Total Sales | 10 |
| Orange | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 18 |
| Placentia | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 4 |
| Rancho Santa Margarita | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 11 |
| San Clemente | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | Total Sales | 20 |
| Santa Ana | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 4 | 14 | 8 | 3 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 44 |
| Seal Beach | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 4 |
| Stanton | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 7 |
| Tustin | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 15 |
| Villa Park | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Total Sales | 2 |
| Westminster | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 8 |
| Yorba Linda | 1 Bdr | 2 Bdr | 3 Bdr | 4+ Bdr | ||
| >$300,000 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||
| $301,000-$600,000 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | ||
| $601,000-$1,000,000 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | ||
| <$1,001,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Total Sales | 18 |
